Continuous heavy rains since July, so that Thailand experienced the largest floods in half a century. Not only in agriculture, industrial area flooded more than Thailand, the Thai economy suffered heavy losses. However, some key manufacturing emergency transfer to the industry's global supply chain is expected to smooth out the disaster.
Bank of Thailand October 19, the upcoming monetary policy meeting. Currently, the market is expected to Thailand is likely to cut its forecast for economic growth this year to 4.1%. Prior to the Bank of Thailand estimates that the floods caused losses of up to 120 billion baht nationwide (about 24.9 billion yuan). More economists estimate that the direct economic losses of 150 billion baht (about 31.1 billion yuan).
Nomura Securities, in its October 18 release of the Asia Economic Monitor report predicted: 19-day monetary policy meeting, the Thai central bank will keep interest rates unchanged, because the impact of severe floods in Thailand may have economic growth and inflation outlook negative impact.
However, Thailand is not Japan, not in the global manufacturing chain and Japan after the earthquake caused a similar uproar. China Institute of Contemporary International Relations Institute of World Economy Fengying in the interview with this reporter, said: "The Japanese earthquake of March on the global supply chain, at least six months produced a serious impact, but the Thai Industrial Park, the loss caused by floods, soon by the Myanmar, Laos and other places of manufacturing make up. "
Electronics and automotive parts hit
Bangkok, Thailand, lucky escape on the 15th night of floods. However, due to the Chao Phraya River to the highest level there three hundred years, between 16 to 18, peak, high tide and heavy rain may occur simultaneously, accounting for 41% of Bangkok, the Thai economy will face a new round of challenges.
As Thailand has become Asia and the world of electronic and automotive parts, camera parts and a major supplier of computer components, one of its related industries Industrial Park continued to attack and lay-off was flooding the news, constantly testing the market patience.
Currently, a large number of factories north of Bangkok, has been flooded, the traditional industrial base in Thailand - Ayutthaya five industrial parks all flooded, affected nearly 200 factories closed due to industrial areas which Bangba 84 foreign factory workers have been moved to go. And 17 pm, Thailand's largest industrial park - Nava Nakhon Industrial Park, a total of 190 large factories also flooded. From the Thai Ministry sources said at least 930 plants nationwide hit.
Automotive industry the most serious damage. Honda is located north of Bangkok, a few plants within the water plant to reduce its global production capacity of 4.7%, Honda was forced to stop production to present this weekend. Toyota, Isuzu, Nissan and Mitsubishi Corporation will also extend the cut-off date to this weekend. Some analysts pointed out last week alone, loss of auto parts supplier at least 30 billion baht (about 620 million yuan) above.
At the same time, the camera components and computer hard disk manufacturing industry suffered losses vary. According to foreign media reports, the U.S. hard drive maker Western Digital and the industrial area located in Rojana ON Semiconductor and chip maker Microsemi how many are suspended or delayed the progress of its production in Thailand.
Less impact on global supply Japan
However, Thailand did not flood the global industrial chain, and Japan after the earthquake caused a similar uproar.
"While the automotive and electronic components industries, Thailand occupies an important industrial chain links, but the affected areas to undertake labor-intensive manufacturing plant is part of a strong substitutability." Fengying said, "This is the global auto electronic components and R & D, investment and create divergence in the Japanese completely different. "
In fact, since the floods in late July, Honda, Toyota, Ford and other important production base in Thailand enterprises have begun to shift its production base in an emergency, and to find an alternative production of key parts suppliers. The surrounding Burma, Laos, Vietnam and other places of the industrial layout, and high similarity in Thailand, industrial transfer is not an empty word.
Canon has said its production in Thailand inkjet printer business will move to Vietnam.
Chen Fengying that the current global excess production capacity is actually the short-term lack of production and supply in Thailand, will not be a mortal blow to these industries.
The other good news is that in the global industrial chain, play a more important position in Japan, the economy has gradually recovered and is expected to continue to achieve production, which will make the search for alternative suppliers outside of Thailand's power strengthened.
Nomura Securities is expected to Takahide Kiuchi, chief economist for Japan, the Japanese earthquake led to the past six months due to supply spare parts production was severely reduced, consumers have a lot of the backlog demand; the same time, low inventory needs to improve to a reasonable level. Therefore, the Japanese car manufacturers to increase production quickly.
Currently, the Japanese car manufacturing output in August rose 1.7%, which is the first increase after the earthquake, automobile manufacturers plan to increase substantially from the beginning of October to make up the supply chain after the earthquake cut the lead to serious interference effects. These companies are doing to prepare, for example, recruitment arrangements for temporary and holiday overtime. These actions also extends itself to the auto parts manufacturers.
In fact, in addition to economic losses during the floods, the reconstruction of Thailand will also trigger new market demand.
Currently, in addition to manufacturing losses, Thai agricultural sector suffered greater losses. This has prompted the international market, rice, rubber and other agricultural prices on the market within a small range of short-term impact. After the flooding, how to restore Thailand's economy, but also on the global commodity markets have a certain level of impact.
Thailand Institute of Asia-Pacific Academy of Social Sciences expert Ye Fang week that Thailand's new Prime Minister of the British pull, the real challenge after the floods, post-disaster reconstruction is the need to re-balance forces and moments of risk, how the government introduced economic policies on the global market will indirectly have a major impact.
